The Title Run In..........

[Charnwood]

Three things for Monday:

Imo if Town manage to beat Southampton on Monday (Big if) and Leeds win too that's it for the autos for Southampton - they wouldn't be able to make up 12 points in 8 games

Leicester have hit a run of poor form at just the wrong time - a home loss to Norwich would really ring the alarm bells as far as their hopes for an automatic place go

Leeds should take three points fairly easily against an indifferent Hull side at Elland Road

As Nigel Pearson says yesterday there’s no point trying to work out what you might need to do based on other teams results as every game is totally unpredictable at this time of the season. Yesterday was a classic example of that.
Almost certainly the two teams that win automatic promotion will be the two that best deal with the pressure and are able to focus solely on the preparation and match day one game at a time with no interest in what others are doing. I think that’s actually how McKenna operates which is good to know.

Yeah totally. But isn't this thread all about the other teams in relation to Town?

And yes McKenna has said all along it's game by game. To follow his logic through to its natural conclusion, he isn't aware his team are currently top of the league, but I highly doubt that!

When the thread was set up by Bluemike it was to discuss the run in to the Championship Title and automatic promotion places and featured all 4 teams in contention, Leicester, Leeds, Town & Southampton. Looking back it’s been this throughout the chat.

[Charnwood]

We definitely need Norwich to do us a favour today. At least they can’t throw it just to hurt us.

[Charnwood]

A big win for Leicester today, they’re definitely back in it after that performance. We know what we have to do now. Roll on kick off.

[Charnwood]

Well we certainly didn’t disappoint did we.

We are top of the league at least Friday

[Charnwood]

At the current going rate we could realistically end the season with 100 points or more for a second consecutive season. I wonder if that’s ever been achieved before.

[Ricco]

At the current going rate we could realistically end the season with 100 points or more for a second consecutive season. I wonder if that’s ever been achieved before.

What is even more remarkable is that that could still not be enough for automatic promotion! I think I'd take 100 points at this point though, 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss...

Anyway... I thought I'd work out the average league position of teams left to play, here it is:

11.0 Leeds
11.3 Ipswich
13.4 Leicester

...and now I'm going to completely ignore it. There are some tight areas of the league, meaning there's positional volatility, and there will be times when teams are fighting for their lives, or coasting to the end of the season. Leeds have the highest positioned teams to play, but Southampton on the last day of the season bumps that up, yet they looked nailed on for 4th at this point, so I can't see them putting up much of a fight. Leicester have it easiest on paper, which is probably why the bookies still have them decent favourites for promotion, even with their indifferent form. I don't know why I'm a football fan, if this is the best season, pretty much of my lifetime, and it's turning me in to a nervous wreck, I thought it would be enjoyable

[arana peligrosa]

You got six games remaining, to reach 100 points we need another 13 from an available 18. Too score 100 goals the team requires another 16 from those 6 games. On the balance of things not always easy to decide which of the two is more manageable or within reach. Suppose the team gets both, I mean we get 100 points and 100 goals with it, possibly more. It's a long shot but all the same feasible.

That would be exceptional, all the more considering two, three seasons back the team was in near disarray and could never hope to string successive wins together. Surely 87 points already (and with games remaining) in a regular season is near enough for a promotion. If the league structure was based on the top three automatically promoted and chalked off damn play-off games we'd just about have already made it, accomplished what we've set out to do etc.

[Charnwood]

We need 13 from 15 now which is highly unlikely given two of the games are against Coventry and Hull City.

[Charnwood]

Coventry doing us a big favour at the moment leading Leeds United 2-0

[Charnwood]

Birmingham still holding Leicester 1–1 … if both games stay as they are (if only) we’d stay top. How bizarre would that be.

[Charnwood]

Not to be, Leicester scored on 87 mins.

Leicester 2-1 Birmingham

[TODD66]

Got away with today's loss as in the Leeds loss leaving our fate in our hands still rather than hoping Leicester lose that spare game.

[Charnwood]

Cov v Leeds could well be the game of the season, so pleased I watched the second half, it’s really cheered me up.

Just a bit worried we still have them to play them. On today’s two performances they’d absolutely murder us.

We also have to play Hull City another in form team on the verge of the pay offs. This isn’t going to be easy.

[Charnwood]

At the current going rate we could realistically end the season with 100 points or more for a second consecutive season. I wonder if that’s ever been achieved before.

What is even more remarkable is that that could still not be enough for automatic promotion! I think I'd take 100 points at this point though, 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss...

Anyway... I thought I'd work out the average league position of teams left to play, here it is:

11.0 Leeds
11.3 Ipswich
13.4 Leicester

...and now I'm going to completely ignore it. There are some tight areas of the league, meaning there's positional volatility, and there will be times when teams are fighting for their lives, or coasting to the end of the season. Leeds have the highest positioned teams to play, but Southampton on the last day of the season bumps that up, yet they looked nailed on for 4th at this point, so I can't see them putting up much of a fight. Leicester have it easiest on paper, which is probably why the bookies still have them decent favourites for promotion, even with their indifferent form. I don't know why I'm a football fan, if this is the best season, pretty much of my lifetime, and it's turning me in to a nervous wreck, I thought it would be enjoyable

Well we‘ve had the loss v Norwich. I’ll take the draw v Coventry (a) and that leaves us needing to win the other four starting with our next two home games v Watford and Middlesbrough neither of which will come easy especially Middlesbrough who are now chasing a play off place and Huddersfield at home on the final day. Let’s just hope and pray they don’t need a point to avoid relegation.

If all goes to plan Ricco. It will have been enjoyable.

[number 9]

Last 5 matches:

Watford (H) Win
Middlesbrough (H) Win
Hull (A) Draw
Coventry (A) Loss
Huddersfield (H) Win

[Charnwood]

I just hope you’re wrong 9 as I’m pretty sure 97 points will crazily mean the play offs. I think it will take 99 points for an automatic promotion place this season and even then it could be with GD deciding.

Ipswich and Leeds both need 12 points from their last 6 games to be safe and both failed miserably at the weekend and can’t afford anymore errors.

I think it’s either 4 wins and one defeat or even better 4 wins and a draw to be certain of promotion. Anything less and we’re throwing the dice and needing Leeds to match us. Unfortunately Leicester appear to have the show back on the road albeit not exactly convincingly but still look favourites to go up as Champions.

[Dazzz67]

We are going to go on a 5 win streak now and secure promotion, saw it in the tea leaves today, f'in bag split lol.

[marko69]

We are going to go on a 5 win streak now and secure promotion, saw it in the tea leaves today, f'in bag split lol.

……. But yep, hopefully.

They’re gonna coughee it up though, eh?

[Charnwood]

We are going to go on a 5 win streak now and secure promotion, saw it in the tea leaves today, f'in bag split lol.

That’s a worry

[Charnwood]

I can’t stand Chris Sutton but his comments published in the Yorkshire Post today aren’t far off the mark.

Chris Sutton raised concerns regarding Ipswich Town’s energy levels over the weekend in a verdict that might encourage Leeds United in the Championship promotion race.
Ipswich and Leeds both gave up ground in the race for a top-two finish on Saturday, losing at play-off hopefuls Norwich and Coventry respectively. Defeat at fierce rivals Norwich was particularly painful for Kieran McKenna’s side, who were fortunate to concede just once on an underwhelming derby-day.
The promotion-chasing Tractor Boys took until midway through the second-half to register a shot on target at Carrow Road and never truly looked like nicking anything, despite recent last-gasp winners. McKenna noted after the result that his side lacked energy and Sutton put that comment under the microscope.
"It's a sore one from Ipswich's perspective,” Sutton told Sky Sports. “Norwich is a derby game but essentially it's what happens next and it's how they respond. I was a little bit surprised in the interview that he [McKenna] basically said the team looked fatigued. It was a derby game and the team and the players should get up for it. 
"They have had a brilliant season. He's my manager of the season, regardless, with the whole story of getting up from League One. He has been phenomenal. It is now about trying to see it through and it is one hell of a race that we have got on."

[Charnwood]

I can’t stand Chris Sutton but his comments published in the Yorkshire Post today aren’t far off the mark.

Chris Sutton raised concerns regarding Ipswich Town’s energy levels over the weekend in a verdict that might encourage Leeds United in the Championship promotion race.
Ipswich and Leeds both gave up ground in the race for a top-two finish on Saturday, losing at play-off hopefuls Norwich and Coventry respectively. Defeat at fierce rivals Norwich was particularly painful for Kieran McKenna’s side, who were fortunate to concede just once on an underwhelming derby-day.
The promotion-chasing Tractor Boys took until midway through the second-half to register a shot on target at Carrow Road and never truly looked like nicking anything, despite recent last-gasp winners. McKenna noted after the result that his side lacked energy and Sutton put that comment under the microscope.
"It's a sore one from Ipswich's perspective,” Sutton told Sky Sports. “Norwich is a derby game but essentially it's what happens next and it's how they respond. I was a little bit surprised in the interview that he [McKenna] basically said the team looked fatigued. It was a derby game and the team and the players should get up for it. 
"They have had a brilliant season. He's my manager of the season, regardless, with the whole story of getting up from League One. He has been phenomenal. It is now about trying to see it through and it is one hell of a race that we have got on."

I think we all think we’ve looked fatigued for a few games now particularly on our travels, and this will need to change when we visit Hull & Coventry City if we’re going to get anything out of these games. Both teams are up there fighting for a play off place and I fear we’ll probably lose one of these games and if we do we must win the other and all our other games too. Four wins and two defeats from our final 6 games would still maintain our 2 points per game average and would give us 99 points which surely would get us promoted. If it doesn’t there’s definitely no justice in this world and I fear for the team who missed out whoever that might be. Please god make sure it isn’t us.

[ashfordblue]

I have a feeling that after the Norwich debacle, Keiran had a serious talk with all the playing staff about the fatigue creeping in, he knows he made a huge mistake playing Kieffer and Broadhead, where he should have given starting places to Hamadi and Sarmiento, and Travis has to be brought in to the midfield along with Clarke o freshen things up, there are no excuses our target is 102 points and they all must bust a gut doing it, I still think 4 4 2 or 4 3 3 is what's needed I cant see Hamadi doing it all on his own with 3 homes games and a full capacity of home fans to boost the atmosphere we are capable of winning against Watford, Middlesbrough and Huddersfield, and Coventry and Hull away its take no prisoners and 110 % effort to reach our goal 102 points. COYB

[Ricco]

What do you mean by a 433 Ash? 3 centre mids and drop Chaplin? I'd say 433, 424, 4231, whatever they play at the moment, whatever you want to call it, you'd have to be drowning your Norwich sorrows in some pretty strong sherry to think they'd change formation after 41 games of carbon copy this season, and probably all 46 games last season too. Not going to happen.

[Bluemike]

Exactly, we've had this conversation numerous times, McKenna won't, and probably never will change his formation

[Charnwood]

I know it is a case of taking One game at a time and see where it takes us but it's still fun to look at the run in for the Four Promotion contenders and see what we all think, so here it is.......

Leicester City

QPR (H) L 1-2
Sunderland (A) W 1-0 (3 points)
Hull City (A) D 2-2 (4 points)
Southampton (H) P-P
Bristol City (A) L 1-0
Norwich City (H) W 3-1 (7 points)
Birmingham City (H) W 2-1 (10 points) from 18 max 1.67 avg
Millwall (A)
Plymouth Argyle (A)
WBA (H)
Preston (A)
Blackburn Rovers (H)



Leeds United

Huddersfield (A) D 1-1 (1 point)
Stoke City (H) W 1-0 (4 points)
Sheffield Weds (A) W 0-2 (7 points)
Millwall (H) W 2-0 (10 points)
Watford (A) D 2-2 (11 points)
Hull City (H) W 1-0 (14 points)
Coventry City (A) L 2-1 (14 points from 21 max - 2 pts pg avg)
Sunderland (H)
Blackburn Rovers (H)
Middlesbrough (A)
QPR (A)
Southampton (H)



Ipswich Town

Birmingham City (H) W 3-1 (3 points)
Plymouth Argyle (A) W 2-0. (6 points)
Bristol City (H) W 3-2 (9 points)
Cardiff City (A) L 2-1 (9 points)
Sheffield Weds (H) W 6-0 (12 points)
Blackburn Rovers (A) W 0-1 (15 points)
Southampton (H) W 3-2 (18 points)
Norwich City (A) L 1-0 (18 points from 24 max - 2.25 pts avg)
Watford (H)
Middlesbrough (H)
Coventry City (A)
Hull City (A)
Huddersfield (H)



Southampton

Millwall (H) L-1 v 2
Birmingham City (A) W 4-3 (3 points)
Preston (H) P-P
Sunderland (H) W 4-2 (6 points)
Leicester City (A) P-P
Middlesbrough (H) D 1-1 (7 points)
Ipswich Town (A) L 3-2
Blackburn (A) D 0-0 (8 points from 18 max 1.33 pts pg avg.)
Coventry City (H)
Watford (H) D
Preston (H)
Cardiff City (A)
Leicester (A)
Stoke City (H)
Leeds Utd (A)


Looking at these Fixtures is why I believe we are far from out of this, we have Seven Home games that with the exception of Southampton maybe all look very winnable, away from home is tricky and at least Three wins will be required.

Leeds for me look home and hosed with those fixtures which is why I think a Leicester defeat last night was a decent result for us when you look at their run in, they have some very tough away games to come and are running into a bit of a dip results wise, I also think Southampton look to have some banana skins in there too and they too are now getting found out.

We really aren't out of this as long as we do what we are capable of against teams we know we can beat, no more poor displays like we saw against Rotherham though or it will be curtains for top Two.

Everthing to play for........

Oh yes, ONE GAME AT A TIME.

See Mike’s original post which I’ve updated with results to date which I’ve summarised below.

Since this thread was started 6 weeks ago surprisingly it’s Ipswich Town FC which has performed the best of the Top 4 teams challenging for promotion. Ranked by points per game
Town have averaged 2.25 compared with Leeds 2.00, Leicester 1.67 and Southampton 1.33. Interestingly games where points have been dropped haven’t always happened when or where expected as you will see in the summary below.

Ipswich; Cardiff -3 pts, Norwich -3 pts (6)

Leeds; Huddersfield -2 pts, Watford -2 pts, Coventry -3 pts (7)

Leicester; QPR -3 pts, Hull -2 pts, Bristol City -3 pts (8)

Southampton; Millwall -3 pts, Middlesbroogh -2 pts, Ipswich -3 pts , Blackburn -2 pts (10)

These stats suggest to me that all 4 teams will drop more points over the next 4 weeks and they won’t always be when or where expected.

Keep the faith guys, this isn’t over yet despite Saturday’s disappointment.

[Charnwood]

Who on earth would believe that Leicester and Leeds could drop 5 points between them tonight. We really are back in control of our own destiny tonight.

[Shed on tour]

Yet again it shows just how difficult it is to cross the line as you get nearer to it. We have certainly been given an opportunity which we probably didn’t think we would get before the matches kicked off tonight, now we have to try and seize that opportunity.

[marko69]

Yet again it shows just how difficult it is to cross the line as you get nearer to it. We have certainly been given an opportunity which we probably didn’t think we would get before the matches kicked off tonight, now we have to try and seize that opportunity.

Think how close Ipswich could've been to winning the league with all this continuous help from others......, had things like Cardiff Citys two late goals didn't happen.

[Shed on tour]

Yet again it shows just how difficult it is to cross the line as you get nearer to it. We have certainly been given an opportunity which we probably didn’t think we would get before the matches kicked off tonight, now we have to try and seize that opportunity.

Think how close Ipswich could've been to winning the league with all this continuous help from others......, had things like Cardiff Citys two late goals didn't happen.

Was thinking the same thing myself. Really need the crowd to get behind the team tomorrow night especially if things aren’t going to plan. Still think there will be a few more twists and turns before everything is settled.

[Charnwood]

If only we can win our 3 home games I think we could go up as Champions . Of course this is a huge IF, but this is now all about which team can manage the pressure and which team can hold their nerve.

At the current rate no team will break though 100 points and the league Champions will do it with less than that which looked very unlikely before the weekend just gone.